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Economic outlook is soft for Q4, with growth nowcast at 1.4 per cent

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  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q4 2020 weakened to 1.41% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 1.80% during the week ending 23rd Oct October.

  • Manufacturers’ new orders for durable goods improved marginally by 1.85% (month- on-month) compared with August, marking the 5th consecutive month of growth.

  • Exports improved by 2.73% (month-on-month) while imports dropped by 0.25% (month-on-month) compared with August.

  • Real disposable personal income rose by 0.70% (month-on-month) while real personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.23% (month-on-month) compared with August — below EIU nowcast model projections.

  • Consumer confidence present situation from The Consumer Board improved by 5.76% (month-on-month) while consumer expectations fell by 4.37% (month-on-month) with comparison to September.

  • MNI-Chicago business barometer index fell to 61.1 in October from 62.4 in September which was the highest since February of 2009.

  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 751,00 compared with 791,000 the week before.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual]  (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sep (20’)1545.001476.00
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)237057.00232744.00
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)422070.00420478.00
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)1075748.001078335.00
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)100.90101.30
Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Present Situation (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)104.6098.90
Conference Board: Consumer Expectations (SA, 1985=100)Oct (20’)98.40102.90
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)121992.30118750.30
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)201366.60201863.70
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)751.00849.00
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)81.8080.40
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Actual](NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)85.9087.80
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Actual] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Oct (20’)79.2075.60
Real Disposable Personal Income (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Sep (20’)15749.0015641.00
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (SAAR, Bil.Chn.2012$)Sep (20’)13053.9012894.70
MNI-Chicago Report: Business Barometer Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Growth)Oct (20’)61.1062.40

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand)Oct (20’)2nd Nov 2020
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Oct (20’)2nd Nov 2020
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)3rd Nov 2020
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)3rd Nov 2020
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)3rd Nov 2020
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.)Oct (20’)4th Nov 2020
ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Oct (20’)4th Nov 2020
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)4th Nov 2020
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Sep (20’)4th Nov 2020
US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Oct (20’)4th Nov 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)5th Nov 2020
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous)Oct (20’)6th Nov 2020

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