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Surge in coronavirus cases weighs heavily on Q4 GDP nowcast

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  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q4 2020 further weakened to 0.94% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 1.37% during the week ending 6th November.

  • Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped to 77 for the month of November, the lowest reading since June 2020, as coronavirus cases surge.

  • Consumer expectations from the University of Michigan also fell to 71.3 for the month of November — below the EIU nowcast model projections.

  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 709,000 for November compared with 757,000 for the month of October.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)709.00757.00
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)77.0081.80
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)85.8085.90
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Nov (20’)71.3079.20

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexNov (20’)16th Nov 2020
Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)17th Nov 2020
Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)Oct (20’)17th Nov 2020
Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Oct (20’)17th Nov 2020
New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit (SAAR, Thous.Units)Oct (20’)18th Nov 2020
Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Oct (20’)18th Nov 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)19th Nov 2020
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexNov (20’)19th Nov 2020
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersNov (20’)19th Nov 2020

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