Forecasting the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election

The year 2020 was a particularly difficult one for economic and political forecasting. In a retrospective report, “Predicting the unpredictable: Forecasting in 2020”, we asked our analysts how they approached forecasting in a year like no other.

In the report, Cailin Birch, The EIU’s lead US analyst, explains how we accurately forecast the outcome of the US presidential election and its aftermath.

What approach did the EIU take when forecasting the US election result?

Forecasting the 2020 US presidential election was a challenge. Polls are a key source of data to forecast the outcome of an election, but forecasters had got things badly wrong in 2016, under-reporting support for Donald Trump. Forecasts for the 2020 election varied widely: some predicted a second Trump victory on the assumption that the same polling distortions would occur, while others forecast that Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats would be carried into office in a “blue wave” landslide victory. 

We took a more circumspect approach. We knew that polling data had more to tell us in 2020 than they did in 2016. Many factors that led to under-reporting of Mr Trump’s base in 2016—including hesitance by many Republicans to embrace an unconventional candidate—did not apply in 2020. However, we did not trust the 2020 polling data completely; state-level polling showed that a record number of first-time voters were likely to participate, giving Mr Trump an edge.

How successful was this approach?

On balance, we correctly forecast that Mr Biden would win the popular vote, but eke out a narrower Electoral College victory with thin margins in key swing states. Market consensus suggested that if Mr Trump lost, the US could find itself in a constitutional crisis that could delay inauguration. Here, our economic projections guided our political forecasts. We accurately forecast that US GDP growth would stagnate in the fourth quarter of 2020, increasing pressure on Mr Trump to stop acting on his election-fraud claims by January.

Election aside, how did our US economic predictions fare?

We correctly assessed the economic drivers of US GDP contraction early on. We also rightly predicted that the impact of the pandemic on the US economy would be lighter than elsewhere in the world and that the coronavirus-induced recession would not be followed by a financial crisis. However, GDP data in July-September 2020 proved more positive than we expected. An unexpectedly robust recovery took place in these months, boosted by a sharp rebound in consumer spending. 

For an in-depth look at the trials and tribulations of forecasting throughout 2020 in both the US and the rest of the world, download our latest report, “Predicting the unpredictable: Forecasting in 2020”.

All our award-winning forecasts can be found in our Country Analysis service. With detailed reports available for more than 190 countries around the world, our insights provide truly global coverage to help you to prepare for what’s ahead.

Cailin Birch is the global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit. She is a frequent guest in national and international media, providing critical insight into global political and economic trends. She is also an experienced speaker and moderator at high-level events, who can deliver thoughtful insights and draw impactful conclusions from complex discussions.