Voters view Scholz as winner of first debate

The three frontrunner chancellor candidates took part in a live TV debate on August 30th, with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) candidate, Olaf Scholz, performing best according to polls. The SPD has continued to gain ground on the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), making the election far more open than it was just weeks ago.

The debate included the three leading chancellor candidates: Mr Scholz of the SPD, Armin Laschet of the CDU and Annalena Baerbock from The Greens. Two more such events are planned, as well as one involving smaller parties.

Each candidate had strengths: Ms Baerbock started off well and effectively challenged the current government regarding the failings of the Afghan rescue operation. Mr Laschet pushed Mr Scholz and Ms Baerbock on why they would not rule out a coalition involving the Left Party. Mr Scholz successfully portrayed himself as an experienced, centrist and predictable—if slightly boring—figure, reminiscent of and frequently compared to Angela Merkel, the current chancellor.

The debate had few surprises and is unlikely to change perceptions of the candidates. Two sets of polling numbers showed Mr Scholz as the clear winner of the debate in the public mind. This was particularly the case among older voters: 42% of over‑65s thought that Mr Scholz won, 26% Mr Laschet and 15% Ms Baerbock (the rest believed that the candidates performed “much the same”; whereas among under‑30s, 33% believed that Mr Scholz won, 30% Mr Laschet and 31% Ms Baerbock. Older voters have been drawn to the image Mr Scholz is projecting of himself as a sober, unemotional “safe pair of hands”.

Further polls since then have pointed to a continuing SPD lead. Ms Merkel made a brief intervention in the campaign, playing up the possibility of the SPD and The Greens forming a government with the Left Party. Mr Laschet has attempted a revival with a new set of environmental policy pledges. He also hinted at a ministerial role for his one-time leadership rival, CDU hawk Friedrich Merz—perhaps in a bid to persuade economically liberal voters not to decamp to the liberal Free Democratic Party.

The race for the chancellorship is now open: Mr Laschet started as the favourite, but it now appears that his party may not win the greatest share of the vote. It is increasingly likely that there will be a three-party coalition, which could make for slow and difficult government formation after September 26th.