Europe chart of the week: right set to gain in EU elections

• The European Parliament elections in June will herald a sharp shift to the right across Europe. According to the latest opinion polls, right-wing populist parties are set to make the biggest gains: the far-right Eurosceptic Identity and Democracy (ID) and the conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) will probably become the third- and fourth-largest parliamentary groups, both increasing their number of seats by 20 compared with the last election in 2019.

• Pro-EU parties are likely to retain their majority but lose seats. Green parties will probably be the biggest losers, as a result of a growing popular backlash against EU green policies, with farmers taking to the streets across Europe. The liberal Renew Europe is also likely to suffer significant losses, mainly because of a collapse in support for Renaissance, the party of Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, which has passed unpopular domestic reforms, often by decree.

• Ursula von der Leyen is likely to be reconfirmed as president of the European Commission, with a rightward shift in policy. The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) is set to remain the largest parliamentary group and will therefore have the power to nominate the political leadership of the Commission, the EU’s executive body in charge of drafting legislation. A second von der Leyen presidency will ensure some continuity, but, for fears of losing votes to the far right, an EPP-led Commission will increasingly focus on tougher border controls, less regulatory requirements for EU firms and prioritising industrial interests over environmental ones.

• A European Parliament with an increased number of seats for far-right parties could mean new legislation on climate change, migration, EU enlargement and international trade agreements being blocked. However, the Parliament has limited powers, which revolve around ratifying treaties and approving the EU budget and legislation. The real centre of power is the Council of the European Union, which represents the EU countries’ governments, so changes at the Council level are the ones that affect EU policymaking the most. The next key events to watch will be the general elections in Germany and France (Europe’s economic and political powerhouses), scheduled for 2025 and 2027 respectively.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this video can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.