Modest recovery in the labour market and business sentiment lift Q3 nowcast

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The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 3.83% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.06% during the week ending July 31st.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls released last week showed that the U.S. economy added 1.76 million jobs in July, beating market expectations
This helped to offset the release of ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment for July, which came in much below projections
Initial claims of unemployment insurance decreased last week — after stagnating around 1.4 million for the previous few weeks — indicating a modest recovery in the job market may have begun
ISM Non Manufacturing PMI spiked to 58.1 (considerably above market expectations); this was the steepest expansion in service activities since February 2019
A similar increase was observed for ISM Manufacturing PMI with a July reading of 52.6 — the highest since March 2019
To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

Indicators	Reference Period	Latest data	Previous data
ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand)	Jul (20’)	52.60	54.20
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion)	Jul (20’)	50.94	49.76
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)	Jun (20’)	207236.00	192862.00
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)	Jun (20’)	424973.00	424899.00
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)	Jun (20’)	1092528.00	1107840.00
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.)	Jul (20’)	167.00	4314.00
ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)	Jul (20’)	58.10	57.10
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)	Jun (20’)	102855.40	89948.5
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)	Jun (20’)	173840.50	165328.00
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)	Jul (20’)	1186.00	1408.00
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous)	Jul (20’)	1766.00	4791.00

Indicators	Reference Period	Release Date
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)	Aug (20’)	13th Aug 2020
Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)	Jul (20’)	14th Aug 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (NSA, Q1-66=100)	Aug (20’)	14th Aug 2020
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions (NSA, Q1-66=100)	Aug (20’)	14th Aug 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations (NSA, Q1-66=100)	Aug (20’)	14th Aug 2020
Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)	Jul (20’)	14th Aug 2020
Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)	Jul (20’)	14th Aug 2020

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