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Slight firming in the labour market and PMI surveys lift Q3 nowcast to 3.8 percent
The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 improved to 3.80% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.61% during the week ending 28th August.
Non-farm payroll data for August showed the addition of 1.37 million jobs to the US economy, slightly below market forecasts, while non-farm private payroll data from ADP showed private businesses hired 428,000 workers in August.
ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 56 in August from 54.2 in July, beating market forecasts. ISM non-manufacturing PMI, while falling to 56.9 in August from 58.1 in July, still indicated an increase in economic activity in the month.
Revisions in services and manufacturing PMI for August also pointed towards expansion as the economy recovers from Covid-19.
Initial claims of unemployment insurance fell to 881,000 in the week ending on 29th August — the lowest print in the month of August.
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Data releases (last week)
Indicators Reference Period Latest data Previous data US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual][Latest Estimates incl Flash] (SA, 50 +=Expansion) Aug (20’) 53.11 50.94 ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand) Aug (20’) 56.00 54.20 Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual](SA, Mil.$) Jul (20’) 231128.00 207474.00 Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual](EOP, SA, Mil.$) Jul (20’) 421789.00 424468.00 Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual](EOP, SA, Mil.$) Jul (20’) 1084341.00 1092630.00 ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.) Aug (20’) 428.00 212.00 ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing) Aug (20’) 56.90 58.10 Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Aug (20’) 881.00 1435.00 Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Jul (20’) 115175.30 102867.40 Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$) Jul (20’) 195289.00 173821.4 US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion) Aug (20’) 55.02 49.98 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous) Aug (20’) 1371.00 1737.00
Data releases (current week)
Indicators Reference Period Release Date Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous) Sep (20’) 10th Sep 2020
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