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GDP nowcast dips as growth in retail spending and industrial output slow

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  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q3 2020 weakened to 3.54% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 3.80% during the week ending 4th September.

US real GDP growth in Q3 2020

  • Retail sales and food services for August showed a marginal rise of 0.56% (month-on-month), lower than the EIU’s nowcast model projections.

  • The industrial production index for August improved marginally in comparison with July but continued to remain below last year’s value by 7.73% (year-on-year), while capacity utilization for the industrial sector improved by 0.42% (month-on-month) compared with July 2020.

  • Housing indicators dropped for August below the market expectations — housing starts fell by 5.10% (month-on-month) while new private housing units by building permits fell by 0.88% (month-on-month) compared with July.

  • September releases for diffusion indices presented a mixed picture. The Empire State manufacturing survey diffusion index improved but the Philadelphia manufacturing survey diffusion index weakened in comparison with August. 

  • Consumer sentiment indicators from the University of Michigan improved for September but remained below our projections for the month.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
Retail Sales & Food Services (SA, Mil.$)Aug (20’)537526.00534558.00
Industrial Production Index (SA, 2012=100)Aug (20’)101.40101.00
Capacity Utilization: Industry (SA, Percent of Capacity)Aug (20’)71.4071.10
New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Flash] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Aug (20’)1470.001483.00
Housing Starts (SAAR, Thous.Units)Aug (20′)1416.001492.00
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Sep (20’)78.9074.10
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Sep (20’)87.5082.90
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Sep (20’)73.3068.50
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Sep (20’)860.00884.00
Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Seasonally adjusted diffusion indexSep (20’)17.003.70
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey Current Activity Diffusion IndexSep (20’)15.0017.20
Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey New OrdersSep (20’)25.50 19.00

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
New Pvt Housing Units Authorized by Building Permit [Actual] (SAAR, Thous.Units)Aug (20’)24th Sep 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Sep (20’)24th Sep 2020
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (SA, Mil.$)Aug (20’)25th Sep 2020
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Aug (20’)25th Sep 2020
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Flash] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Aug (20’)25th Sep 2020

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