Global Outlook: bleak picture for international commerce

In The Economist Intelligence Unit’s latest global outlook video, Agathe Demarais, Andrew Viteritti and Keren Uziyel discuss our latest forecasts for global trade and investment, as well as the Middle East region.

Amid US-China tensions and a rise in protectionist sentiment, the growth in global trade has been slowing since 2018. This downward trend has been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic, with both trade and foreign direct investment flows set to plummet this year. Andrew Viteritti, The EIU’s managing editor for commerce and regulation, discusses whether Covid-19 represents the death knell of globalisation.

From one bleak picture to another, economies across the Middle East and North Africa are expected to shrink by nearly 6% this year. The region will also be among the slowest across the globe to recover from the pandemic. Keren Uziyel, a senior analyst at The EIU, looks at the region’s outlook in more depth, highlighting which economies are likely to bounce back quicker than others and which sectors appear most likely to achieve growth in a post-Covid world.

To find out more about the political, policy and economic outlook in these countries, check out our country analysis and five-year forecasts. With detailed reports available for more than 190 countries around the world, our insights provide truly global coverage to help you to prepare for what’s ahead.

We recently published a special report, authored by Andrew Viteritti, looking at the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on globalisation. You can download the report here: Down but not out? Globalisation and the threat of Covid-19