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GDP nowcast dips as the labour market recovery stalls

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  • The EIU nowcast for the US economy for Q4 2020 weakened to 1.85% (quarter-on-quarter) as of last week, compared with 1.97% during the week ending 27th November.

  • ADP employment data for November revealed the addition of 307,000 jobs to the US economy — the lowest in the last four months. Non-farm payroll employment from the BLS also indicated the addition of only 245,000 jobs in November – the lowest since May 2020.

  • The ISM Manufacturing index fell to 57.5 in November from a two year high in October. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 55.9 in November — the lowest since May 2020.

  • Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 712,000 for the fourth week of November, down from 787,000 the previous week.

  • To get the full background to our EIU Nowcast, view our methodology and FAQs page or contact us using the form below.

Data releases (last week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodLatest dataPrevious data
US Markit PMI: Manufacturing [Actual] [Latest Estimates incl Flash]  (SA, 50 +=Expansion)Nov (20’)56.6553.36
ISM Mfg: PMI Composite Index (SA, 50+ = Econ Expand)Nov (20’)57.5059.30
ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (SA Change, Thous.)Nov (20’)307.00404.00
ISM Non Manufacturing : NMI Composite Index (SA, +50=Increasing)Nov (20’)55.9056.60
US PMI: Svcs Business Activity Index [Actual] [Latest Est incl Flash](SA, 50+=Expansion)Nov (20’)53.3656.95
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)712.00757.00
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls excluding the Effect of Strikes (SA, Thous)Nov (20’)245.00610.00
Manufacturers’ New Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)240978.00237786.00
Manufacturers’ Inventories: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)422460.00421434.00
Manufacturers’ Unfilled Orders: Durable Goods [Actual] (EOP, SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)1073292.001075902.00

Data releases (current week)

IndicatorsReference PeriodRelease Date
Exports, f.a.s.: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)7th Dec 2020
Imports, Customs Value: Goods [Actual] (SA, Mil.$)Oct (20’)7th Dec 2020
Unemployment Insurance: Initial Claims, State Programs (SA, Thous)Dec (20’)10th Dec 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Dec (20’)11th Dec 2020
University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions  [Flash](NSA, Q1-66=100)Dec (20’)11th Dec 2020
University of Michigan: Consumer Expectations  [Flash] (NSA, Q1-66=100)Dec (20’)11th Dec 2020

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