LDP’s dominance in Japan to be diluted

Japan will head to elections for the first time since the departure of Abe Shinzo, the country’s longest-serving prime minister who resigned in September 2020 owing to health reasons. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics since the second world war. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the LDP will once again return with a majority along with its junior coalition partner, the Komeito party, with the election likely to be held in October 2021. However, intra-party factional rivalry within the LDP resurfaced under the tenure of Suga Yoshihide, Mr Abe’s successor. This will dilute the party’s dominance of Japanese politics. Meanwhile, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Democratic Party merged in September 2020 to form a unified party also known as the CDP. This increased their parliamentary seat tally to its highest since 2012, the last time a non-LDP party was in power.

The upcoming election for the lower house of the Diet (the national parliament) will be held as the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage across the country. While the vaccination drive picked up following a slow start, the proportion of people fully vaccinated in Japan remains lower than its G7 peers. Well before the vaccination rollout began, as far back as March 2020, the public has been sceptical of the government’s coronavirus response. This has contributed to a decline in the LDP’s popularity, with cabinet approval ratings of Mr Abe, and subsequently Mr Suga, taking a hit. The party’s electoral performance has also been weak in a series of regional elections since the start of the year, including gubernatorial elections for various prefectures and by-elections for three Diet seats.

Mr Suga has now decided not to seek re-election as the president of the LDP in the party’s leadership contest which is scheduled to take place at the end of September. His successor will be tasked with handling the economic and health crisis facing the country. Despite the current political instability, we expect the LDP-led coalition to still secure an overall majority in the upcoming elections, and consequently, Japan’s policy making structure is unlikely to be changed drastically. However, it is slated to lose its current two-third majority as the opposition party increases their seat count, especially through proportional voting blocks.

The key challenge the next LDP government will face is its goal of a constitutional amendment which requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the parliament. While the coalition already has the super-majority in the more powerful lower house, it only has a simple majority in the upper house of the Diet. The results of the upcoming election will further delay the party’s goal and potentially also limit any significant expansion of its defence budget.

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