Taking stock of the Macron presidency

• Emmanuel Macron was elected president on a platform of far-reaching reforms. He succeeded in making some improvements to the business environment, but his agenda has more recently been disrupted by protests and then the pandemic.

• While his handling of the pandemic has been criticised, the acceleration of the vaccination programme and rebound in the economy in 2021 have reflected well on him.

• With divisive reforms (for example to the pensions system) now sidelined in favour of crowd-pleasing plans to support the recovery, and in the context of deep divisions on both the left and the right of the political spectrum, Mr Macron is well placed to present himself as the candidate already leading France towards a brighter future.

• Polls suggest that the 2022 election will, like that in 2017, result in a second-round run-off against Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, with Mr Macron winning re-election.

Mr Macron swept to power in 2017 as a refreshing alternative to his political rivals. His predecessor, François Hollande, had spent five years pushing through divisive social reforms while stalling on much-needed economic reforms. In contrast, Mr Macron presented himself as a man of action who would deliver on his promises—avoiding both the frenzied haste of Nicolas Sarkozy, the president in 2007‑12, and the stifling indecision of Mr Hollande. Against François Fillon, the 2017 candidate of Les Républicains (LR) on the centre-right, who became embroiled in a sleaze scandal, Mr Macron presented himself as a candidate committed to cleaning up politics. And against Ms Le Pen, the far-right candidate who faced off against him in the second round of the election, Mr Macron positioned himself as the unifying candidate who stood for moderates on both the centre-left and the centre-right.

An ambitious agenda disrupted by Covid

Four years later, not all has gone according to plan. Mr Macron’s term started well: despite facing protests, especially regarding his fiscal reforms, he avoided the freefall in opinion polls that his predecessors had experienced. He also came good on a significant number of his promises, most notably his flagship labour market reform. However, his trajectory was thrown off by the Covid-19 pandemic, which he responded to—in line with most governments worldwide—by taking a very state-led approach, with restrictions on civil liberties coupled with massive government spending.

Rapid improvements in 2021: vaccinations and the economy

One of the main hurdles that Mr Macron faced in responding to the pandemic was the slow rollout of the vaccination programme. This was due to a combination of challenges: a lack of momentum from the government coupled with an initial shortage of supply, plus widespread levels of vaccine hesitancy among the population. However, after a slow start, almost three-quarters of the population has now received at least one dose—the seventh-highest share in the EU.

The key issue now is the state of the French economy. At present, there is a sense of cautious optimism; the damage done has been less extensive than initially feared, with a reasonably strong bounce-back in early 2021, and no major spike in the unemployment rate. Further growth is dependent on the government’s ability to contain the virus (including any new variants) and keep the economy moving. There is also the debt burden accumulated over the crisis, with public debt rising to just over 115% of GDP in 2020, the sixth-highest in the euro zone. That said, extremely favourable financing conditions mean that borrowing costs will remain at historical lows, while France’s substantial and ongoing fiscal stimulus is supporting the recovery. In the absence of further setbacks in the coming months, Mr Macron looks set to emerge from the pandemic relatively unscathed.

Divisive reforms on hold; crowd pleasers at the ready

The pandemic has also provided a few opportunities. The shifting of the government’s priorities has allowed Mr Macron to quietly sideline some of his more controversial plans, for example for institutional reform. Election pledges made in exchange for support from his centrist rival, François Bayrou, of the Mouvement démocrate (MoDem)—who was then ejected from the government at the first opportunity—can now be laid to rest. We expect no more talk of electoral reform or major reductions in the number of parliamentary deputies, ideas that would have ruffled too many feathers within the political class.