Colombia’s political landscape is set for a dramatic shift

Ahead of the May 29th presidential election, fierce in-fighting among Colombia’s centrist and right-wing political coalitions has further strengthened the position of Gustavo Petro, a senator, former mayor of Bogota, and the likely candidate of the left who defends a radical populist agenda. The strong divide within these alliances prompted some pre-candidates to abandon them and announce their independent tickets. Although this will lead to a more fragmented vote for both coalitions, according to recent polls, support for the centre has been falling, while voting intentions on both the left and the right have increased. 

The race will remain wide open until March

This scenario will strengthen Mr Petro, who already leads the polls with 25% of voting intention and whose leadership of the Pacto Histórico coalition is unlikely to be disputed. Nevertheless, a rejection rate of 44% and a still high share of undecided voters (around 9%) and null voting intentions (around 15%) will prevent Mr Petro from winning in the first round. 

There is a significant chance that a right-wing candidate makes it into the second round. In this scenario, given a clear increase in anti-establishment sentiment in Colombia, Mr Petro’s chances of winning would be larger. If the centre manages to regain its political momentum, Sergio Fajardo, a moderate former governor, would have a higher chance of coming second in the first round and facing Mr Petro in a second-round runoff in June. In this context, given Mr Fajardo’s conciliatory style, he would probably beat Mr Petro, who will be under fierce criticism in the latter stage of the campaign. 

The race will remain wide open until March when both the congressional elections and the coalitions’ primary vote will take place; the former will allow chosen candidates on the right and the centre-ground of the political spectrum to gain momentum; the latter will provide a clearer indication of public sentiment going into the presidential race.

What are the potential implications for the business environment in Colombia?

Whoever takes office in August will inherit a fragmented political environment and will face fierce opposition from the defeated sides. This will complicate governability and raise the risk of renewed social instability amid increased popular demand for better public services, lower crime rates and reduced income inequality. If Mr Petro becomes the next president, political stability will be further complicated by his radical populist proposals, such as the adoption of price controls and the end to oil exploitation, and by the difficulties he will face pleasing his recently added supporters without alienating his traditional leftist base.

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