US national security bill inches forward in Congress

What’s happened?

On February 13th the Senate (the upper house) voted 70‑29 to approve a US$95bn national security bill providing aid to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other US allies. The bill has since stalled in the House of Representatives (the lower house), owing to protests, mainly from ultra‑conservatives. However, bipartisan support is becoming clearer in both chambers, supporting our view that Congress will pass a foreign aid package, potentially by early March.

Why does it matter?

Bipartisan support in the Senate indicates that Republicans are increasingly willing to break ranks over Ukraine, particularly when aid for Israel is involved. Of the 70 votes in favour of the bill, 22 came from Republicans, even though the legislation left out the tighter immigration restrictions that many in the party had demanded. Recent comments by Donald Trump, the front‑runner for the Republican presidential nomination, probably facilitated the bill’s passage. His threat to encourage Russia to attack NATO allies that fail to meet defence spending requirements prompted rebukes from some Republicans and made increasing military assistance to Ukraine even more urgent. This came after Mr Trump opposed—and effectively torpedoed—bipartisan plans to blend foreign aid with substantial border security concessions from Democrats, handing Democrats an opportunity to blame Republicans for failing to address voter concerns over illegal immigration.

Paths are emerging for the bill to make progress. A “discharge petition” could force a vote if five Republicans join all House Democrats to reach the 218 signatures required to trigger the motion. Although progressive Democrats have criticised the bill, amendments aimed at encouraging restraint in Israel’s offensive in Gaza could win them over. The discharge petition would also relieve Mike Johnson, the Republican House speaker who supports additional Ukraine aid, from initiating the vote, for which Republican hardliners have threatened to oust him. Other amendments under discussion include adding targeted immigration restrictions and removing more controversial aid to Ukraine’s government, which could attract buy‑in from some ultra‑conservatives.

Meanwhile, prospects for reaching a federal spending agreement before the March 1st partial government shutdown deadline have weakened considerably. As Congress is in recess until the end of February, lawmakers will have just days to pass the necessary appropriations bills to keep the government funded (without an agreement, a full shutdown would occur on March 8th). We maintain our view that a deal is highly unlikely to materialise, particularly as separate national security negotiations are taking priority.

What next?

The House returns to session on February 28th. The looming government shutdown should provide further impetus to reach an agreement on passing a national security package. This will come at the expense of federal budget talks, probably necessitating another stopgap measure to keep the government funded.

The analysis and forecasts featured in this report can be found in EIU’s Country Analysis service. This integrated solution provides unmatched global insights covering the political and economic outlook for nearly 200 countries, enabling organisations to identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.